 New England Patriots
(16-0, 1st place in the AFC East in 2007)
While it ruined their perfect season, the Patriots’ stunning loss to the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII helps New England at the books. The Pats will see more favorable odds than last season, when they were getting huge chalk. New England has all the pieces in place to make another run at the big game.
Prediction: 14-2
 Buffalo Bills
(7-9, 2nd place)
The Bills are an incredibly young team and need to improve upon last season’s 31st-ranked run defense if they’re to make some noise. The acquisition of tackle Marcus Shroud helps, as does an easy schedule that sees Buffalo play only six games against teams that had winning records in 2007.
Prediction: 9-7
 New York Jets
(4-12, 3rd place)
New York spent nearly $120-million on everything but what it really needs: A new quarterback. Whether it’s Chad Pennington or Kellen Clemens under center, the Jets won’t make the playoffs. A profitable UNDER play last season (4-12 O/U), oddsmakers will adjust for a team that has one of the worst offenses in the AFC.
Prediction: 5-11
 Miami Dolphins
(1-15, 4th place)
The Bill Parcells/Tony Sparano era has begun on South Beach, although it’s too bad the pair can’t play. There’s not much talent to go around in Miami, which should be hard-nosed and disciplined at the very least. In order to be a dependable bet, the Dolphins have to be better against the run than last season.
Prediction: 3-13
Cleveland Browns
(10-6, 2nd place)
With five prime-time games on the schedule, it’s not just bettors who think the Browns are on the upswing. Cleveland won’t be 12-4 ATS again this season, but they’ll be a better team with the maturation of its young nucleus. Putting the Browns over the top is the arrival of Corey Williams and Shaun Rogers on the defensive side of the football.
Prediction: 11-5
Pittsburgh Steelers
(10-6, 1st place)
The Steelers fizzled out to finish 2007, dropping a playoff game at home to the Jacksonville Jaguars. The front office didn’t make any significant moves in the offseason, which doesn’t bode well considering Pittsburgh bettors are dealing with the league’s toughest schedule. The loss of guard Alan Faneca hurts more than meets the eye for a team that went 8-8 against the number last season.
Prediction: 9-7
Cincinnati Bengals
(7-9, 3rd place)
This is a big season for the Bengals, who have to get back to running the football with Rudi Johnson. For a team with some great receivers, they sure had a hard time scoring touchdowns in the red zone last season. Cincy converted just under 50% of its opportunities from inside the opposing 20-yard line for TDs in 2007.
Prediction: 7-9
Baltimore Ravens
(5-11, 4th place)
Just because defense wins championships doesn’t mean that scoring isn’t important. Ravens backers found that out the hard way last season, as Baltimore went a league-worst 3-13 ATS. Only two years removed from a 13-3 season, the Ravens need their top-flight run defense at its best once again just to stay afloat.
Prediction: 6-10
Indianapolis Colts
(13-3, 1st place)
The Colts need Marvin Harrison, Dwight Freeney, and Bob Sanders to come back at full strength if they’re to overcome a very tough schedule and remain at the top of the division. Indy also has to have a complete season from Joseph Addai, who faded down the stretch. Bet on Peyton Manning and Tony Dungy finding a way.
Prediction: 13-3
Jacksonville Jaguars
(11-5, 2nd place)
1-8 against the Colts and Pats over the last three years, the Jaguars know who they have to beat to get to the Super Bowl. They also know what they have to do – put more pressure on Manning and Tom Brady. That’s why they drafted Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves, two excellent pass rushers. Jacksonville is flying just enough under the radar to repeat last season’s 11-5 ATS mark.
Prediction: 12-4
Tennessee Titans
(10-6, 3rd place)
Can the Titans take the next step? Not unless Vince Young can become a more dependable passer. Tight end Alge Crumpler is a welcome addition, as is the healthy return of Jevon Kearse. Betting on Tennessee to make the playoffs? Can you say that the Titans are better than Cleveland, Pittsburgh and/or Denver? There’s your answer.
Prediction: 9-7
Houston Texans
(8-8, 4th place)
The Texans might be the most underrated team going, although they don’t have the ATS numbers to back that claim (8-8 ATS in 2007). Establishing a running game is important for Houston to make headway in the very tough AFC South division. Mario Williams and Amobi Okoye are the most exciting pass rush duo in the game.
Prediction: 8-8
San Diego Chargers
(11-5, 1st place)
Bettors should remember that LaDainian Tomlinson, Philip Rivers, and Antonio Gates were hobbled when the Chargers almost took down the Pats in the AFC championship game. It’s not a stretch to say that this is the best team in the NFL, despite losing Lorenzo Neal and Michael Turner.
Prediction: 13-3
Denver Broncos
(7-9, 2nd place)
The Broncos couldn’t cover to save their lives last season, because their defense was simply too porous. The poor ‘D’ also made Denver an excellent over play, as the Broncos went 11-4-1 O/U. A tumultuous offseason aside, they’ll be a little better this season with Jay Cutler coming into his own, and with Champ Bailey and Dre Bly manning the corners.
Prediction: 9-7
Oakland Raiders
(4-12, 4th place)
Al Davis spent a quarter of a billion dollars to improve the Raiders where they were already strong. At least the players he signed are solid: DeAngelo Hall and Gibril Wilson help the Black & Silver have one of the best pass defenses in the AFC. For all the talk about how Oakland should have went with Glenn Dorsey in the draft, there’s no doubt that Darren McFadden is a gamebreaker.
Prediction: 5-11
Kansas City Chiefs
(4-12, 3rd place)
If there’s a team easy to handicap, it’s the Chiefs. They’re going to be bad, mostly because they’ve overhauled the roster with a much-needed youth movement. Kansas City backers need a big comeback from Larry Johnson in order to have a hope at winning more than five games.
Prediction: 3-13
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