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Many inexperienced bettors just want to place a wager and don’t really care when they make it. Or more correctly, they don’t know that it actually matters when they place their bet.
Question: Why not bet at the best time in order to get the best odds?
Answer: Generally, the rule of thumb when betting in sports is to bet on the favorite early in the week, and to bet on the underdog late in the week.
When lines come out, it is the oddsmaker’s first swipe at setting a line for the betting public. Very soon, bettors tell the sportsbook (through their betting patterns) where the line should really be.
The line will move for various reasons, which is why it is beneficial for you that you bet at the right time. Betting at the right time may allow you to get better odds, which will increase your payout if you win the bet.
Betting the Underdogs
If you are going to bet on the underdog, you should try to lay your bet as late as possible. Most people like to bet on the favorites and if most of the money is bet on the favorite, then the sportsbook will then move the line to make it more attractive to bet on the underdog.
The reason sportsbooks do this is that they want there to be even money on both bets so they do not lose money. For example, if the Patriots are playing the Rams, the Pats will obviously be the favorite. If most of the money is bet on the Pats, then the sportsbook will lose money if the Pats win the game, which they should.
So to offset their chance of potential losses, the sportsbook will change the line to make it more attractive for bettors to wager on the underdog Rams. For this reason, it is often best to wait as late as possible to place your bet on the underdog so you can get the best odds possible.
Betting the Favorite
Most recreational bettors flock to favorites, and why not, as the favorite is the team that should win the game. When betting on the favorite, you should bet right when the line comes out.
Many times, the betting public will blindly pound the favorite, forcing the book to move the number from -7 to -7.5 to -8 or even higher. The longer you wait, the higher that number becomes. Trust us, it sucks to bet that favorite at -8.5 on Saturday when you could have gotten it at -6.5 on Monday. And guaranteed the favorite will win 27-20 where those two points are the difference between winning and losing your bet.
Other Factors
The favorite rule is not set in stone. For example, if you watched a game from the previous week and the QB was shaken up, but not injured, you may want to take that into consideration when the line comes out.
The line will change, as players are injured or suspended and if you know this info it can help you out in when you should make your bet. Sportsbooks take these things into consideration, but astute handicappers can find an edge by also examining weather conditions, player matchups, or injuries.
Basically, you should lay your bet when you can get the best odds. The faves-early-dogs-late strategy is a good rule of thumb, but like every wager you make, there should be real math or real science to support your decision.
Combine it all and you will become a more profitable sports bettor and enjoy your hobby more. |
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